You are often up against a 3% range of QQ+ and AK. Should you call a 4bet all-in? What about a 5bet all-in? The math has the answer.
AK ranks very high among the top 3% strongest hands, that you can be dealt in a poker game. For that reason, the majority of poker players will just go for an all-in preflop line. The typical lines are 2bet and 4bet all-in jam, 3bet and 5bet all-in jam or 3bet, 5bet and call an all-in jam. There is a problem with these lines though: They are not profitable at modern fullring cashgames.
![](https://www.micski.dk/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/2021-01-09-ak-2bet-4bet-jam-vs-aa-1.png)
If your villain is the very common tight and aggressive player, or a semi-loose and aggressive player, his range is often down to QQ+ and AK at the point of 4bet+ actions. That is a 3% range. AK blocks 3 combos of AA, 3 combos of KK and 7 combos of AK. That leaves 12 combos of QQ+ and 9 combos of AK. AK has just 38,82% chance of winning those massive flips. It is slight better than other lower ranked hands. You might be surpriced, that a hand like JJ, that is ranked higher than AK, only has 36,19% chance of winning these spots. The reason is, that it does not block the aces and kings, that villain can have.
![](https://www.micski.dk/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/2021-01-09-ak-2bet-4bet-jam-vs-aa-2.png)
Let’s go through the math in some well known scenarios.
Scenario 1: Should you call a 4bet all-in jam with AK?
You are in the BB, 3bet to 9 bb and face a 100 bb 4bet jam from a tight and aggressive player in SB. You have to risc 91 bb to win 109 bb. The break even percentage of a call is 45,50%. SB has QQ+ and AK. That is a 3% range. According to Equilab’s range calculator, you can only call with KK+. That range has a chance of 70,64%. You should fold AK. AKs has a chance of just 41,90%. AKo has a chance of just 38,82%. Even a hand as strong as QQ has a chance of just 40,21%.
Scenario 2: Should you call a 5bet all-in jam with AK?
You are in the SB, 2bet, 4bet to 23 bb and face a 100 bb jam from a tight and aggressive player in BB. You have to risc 77 bb to win 123 bb. The break even percentage of a call is 38,50%. BB has QQ+ and AK. That is a 3% range. According to Equilab’s range calculator, You can call with QQ+ and AK. That range has a chance of 50,00%. AK has a chance of 38,82%. However, you should not just call to break even. You should have a margin for rake and it would be nice with some profit too. If you add 1%, or even 2%, then you should fold AKo and call AKs. AKs has a chance of 41,90%.
Scenario 3: Should you call a 4bet jam from a semi-loose and aggressive shortstack player?
You are in the BB, 3bet to 9 bb and face a 40 bb 4bet jam from a semi-loose and aggressive shortstack player in SB. You have to risc 31 bb to win 49 bb. The break even percentage of a call is 38,75%. SB has 99+ and AQ+. That is a 5% range. According to Equilab’s range calculator, you can call with TT+, AQs+ and AKo. You should call with AK. AKs has a chance of 45,70%. AKo has a chance of 42,87%.
AK goes up in value, when played all-in vs maniacs and aggressive fish.
This all applies to spots in which your villain is a good tight and aggressive player or good semi-loose and aggressive player. Things dramatically, when your villain is a maniac or aggressive fish. These players will have a wider range, that not only has strong hands, but also junk hands. These players, that will take a 3bet all-in jam line with hands like A4s, KQ or 87o are not uncommon.
![](https://www.micski.dk/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/2021-01-26-eq-maniac-open-shove.png)
AK can lose.
While AK might be ahead in preflop all-in spots vs aggressive fish, it should be noted, that AK can lose to a better or worse hand anyway. It’s just the reality of the game.
![](https://www.micski.dk/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/2021-01-09-ak-all-in-vs-maniac-with-87o.png)